Key Finding: SIMPLEAF's UNFI fill rate declined from 100% in January to 92% in May 2026, driven by capacity constraints at Carlisle, Lancaster TX, and Sturtevant. Combined at-risk revenue (missed product + chargeback fees) is $15,426 — 5.4% of total ordered value. The chargeback rate is $15 per missed case per UNFI's policy.
Total Orders
93
11 DCs · Jan–May 2026
Cases Fulfilled
5,594
of 5,837 ordered (95.8%)
Cases Missed
243
8 POs · 6 DCs
Missed Revenue
$11,781
Unshipped product value
Chargeback Cost
$3,645
243 × $15/case
Total At-Risk
$15,426
5.4% of ordered value
Case Fulfillment Breakdown (YTD)
5,837 total cases ordered Jan–May 2026
At-Risk Revenue Composition ($)
$15,426 total — missed product vs. chargeback fees
Shortfall DCs at a Glance
6 of 11 DCs had fulfillment shortfalls — combined missed + CB shown
| DC | Cases Missed | Missed Revenue | CB Cost | Combined At-Risk | Fill Rate |
|---|
Revenue Waterfall: $284,005 Ordered → Net Exposure
How ordered PO value flows through to at-risk revenue
→
$272,224
Fulfilled (95.8%)
→
+
=
Monthly Missed Revenue + Chargeback ($)
Both components shown — worsening trend through May
Cumulative Fulfilled vs. At-Risk (Running Total)
Gap between lines is growing — at-risk accelerating
SUPERVALU CARLISLE accounts for $7,046 of $15,426 total at-risk (45.7%) — $5,381 missed product + $1,665 in chargeback fees. Its 95% fill rate, while above average, drives outsized impact due to volume concentration (35.5% of all orders).
Total At-Risk by DC (Missed + CB) ($)
Carlisle + Lancaster = 61% of all at-risk revenue
DC Fill Rate (%)
Lancaster TX lowest at 89% — two zero-fill POs
Full DC Breakdown
All 11 DCs — ordered, fulfilled, missed, chargeback, and combined at-risk
| Distribution Center | POs | Ordered ($) | Fulfilled ($) | Missed ($) | CB Cost ($) | At-Risk Total | Fill % |
|---|
Problem PO Detail
8 POs with shortfalls — missed cases, product value lost, and chargeback fee
| DC | PO Number | Scheduled | Ordered | Fulfilled | Missed Cases | Missed Value | CB ($15/case) | Fill % |
|---|
Deteriorating Trend: Fill rate dropped from 100% (January) to 92.1% (May) — an 8-point decline over 5 months. At-risk revenue went from $0 in January to $7,745/month in May ($5,915 missed + $1,830 CB). If this trajectory continues, Q3 at-risk could exceed $20K/month.
Fill Rate by Month vs. 98% Target
Red points = below 98% threshold
Monthly At-Risk: Missed Revenue + Chargeback ($)
Stacked — May is worst month to date
Month-by-Month Detail
| Month | POs | Ordered ($) | Fulfilled ($) | Missed ($) | CB Cost ($) | At-Risk Total | Fill Rate | vs. Prior Mo. |
|---|
Recovery Opportunity: Improving fill rate to 98%+ and eliminating chargeback events could recover approximately $12,000–$15,000 annually. The highest-ROI action is aligning Carlisle order quantities to confirmed available inventory before PO submission.
Target Fill Rate
98%+
Industry benchmark for CPG
CB Elimination Opportunity
$3,645
If zero cases missed going forward
Annual Miss Prevention
~$10K
At 98% vs. current 95.8%
Total Annual Recovery
~$15K
Product + chargeback combined
Prioritized Action Plan
| # | Action | Target | Expected Impact | Timeline |
|---|
| 1 | Align Carlisle PO quantities to confirmed available inventory before submission | CARL | Recover ~$5,381/cycle | Next PO cycle |
| 2 | Cap Lancaster TX order qty to production-confirmed cases only | LAN | Eliminate zero-fill POs | Immediate |
| 3 | Implement 2-week safety stock buffer before placing orders at top 3 DCs | CARL, MOR, ATL | Prevent zero-fill events | 30–60 days |
| 4 | Build inventory confirmation step into PO workflow (verify stock before submitting) | All DCs | Eliminate $3,645/period CB fees | 60 days |
| 5 | Weekly fill-rate monitoring using this dashboard for early warning | All DCs | Real-time visibility | Immediate |
Current vs. Target Fill Rate by DC
Gap to 98% — Lancaster TX needs the most improvement
Projected At-Risk: Current Trajectory vs. Actions Taken ($)
Per-month estimate under three scenarios